Economic Growth in Romania
The Romanian economy recorded average real GDP growth of 3.5% in the decade to 2022, above the 2.5% average for Eastern Europe. In 2022, real GDP growth was 4.7%. For more information on gdp, visit our dedicated page
Romania GDP Chart
Romania GDP Data
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.0 | 3.9 | -3.7 | 5.7 | 4.1 |
GDP (USD bn) | 243 | 251 | 251 | 286 | 299 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 206 | 224 | 221 | 242 | 284 |
GDP (RON bn) | 959 | 1,064 | 1,067 | 1,189 | 1,401 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 12.6 | 10.9 | 0.3 | 11.5 | 17.9 |
Activity records slowest expansion in three quarters in Q4
GDP growth lost momentum and came in at 1.0% year on year in the fourth quarter, based on unadjusted series in chain-linked volume technique with reference year 2020, down from 3.6% in the third quarter. Q4's reading marked the softest expansion since Q1 2023. On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity dropped 0.5% in Q4, contrasting the previous quarter's 1.0% growth. Q4's reading marked the sharpest drop since Q1.
Public consumption dropped at the sharpest pace since Q2 2022, contracting 2.9% (Q3: +8.8% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment growth fell to 8.6% in Q4, marking the worst result since Q2 2022 (Q3: +11.3% yoy). Conversely, household spending increased 3.4% in the fourth quarter, which was above the third quarter's 1.5% expansion. On the external front, exports of goods and services contracted 6.8% in Q4, marking the worst result since Q3 2020 (Q3: -3.4% yoy). Conversely, imports of goods and services dropped at a softer pace of 1.8% in Q4 (Q3: -8.3% yoy).
The economy should gain traction this year from last. Consumer spending should accelerate thanks to lower inflation, rising wages and pension increases. Moreover, industrial activity should recover on improving external demand. Fiscal consolidation efforts and progress on reforms are factors to watch.
Commenting on the outlook, Erste Bank’s Vlad Ionita stated: “We stick to our call of +2.6% GDP growth in 2024 in the light of the recent data. The private consumption momentum started in Q4 2023, and it is expected to continue throughout 2024 as strong real wage growth, looser monetary policy conditions and better external demand prospects should nurture higher private spending. We also expect the gross fixed capital formation contribution to remain significant in 2024 supported by inflows of EU funds and continued state investments into infrastructure.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Romanian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 39 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Romanian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Romanian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Romanian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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